M. Alfi Hasan, A. K. M. Saiful Islam and Bhaski Bhaskaran
Hasan, Mohammad Alfi, AKM Saiful Islam, and Bhaski Bhaskaran. "Predicting change of future climatic extremes over Bangladesh in high resolution climate change scenarios." 4th International Conference on Water & Flood Management (ICWFM-2013). 2013.
Publication year: 2013

As one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, it is important to know the possible changes of extreme climate in future. In this context, a study has been carried out based on regional climate modeling results. A total of 17 simulations of Perturbed Physics Ensemble of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project have conducted using regional climate model, PRECIS. The SRES A1B emission scenario has used to run all these ensemble simulations for continuous period from 1961 to 2099. Extreme indices have been derived from the results of these simulations by a software called RClimdex (version 1.1). A total of 14 core indices recommended by the CCl/CLIVAR Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) have been computed using the software. It has found that mean future climate extremes over Bangladesh will have some significant changes at the end of the century. Bangladesh will experience less number of continuous rainy days but will have a higher intensity of rainfall during 2080’s (2071-2100). Total rainfall in each rainy day of a year (PRECTOT) will be more from present time during 2080’s but duration of consecutive rainfall will be lesser at same time. Both the 95th percentile rainfall (R95P) and the 99th percentile rainfall (R99P) show more intense rainfall for shorter time period for the future years. On the other hand, maximum daily rainfall (RX1) will increase in future and exhibits steeper trend than the maximum 5-day rainfall (RX5) over the country. In a single rainy day, the changes of temperature will be higher than present conditions which will affect ecological and fishery productions. The increase of night temperature will more prominent than day time temperature. Probabilities of heat wave will also increase in future. As climatic extreme indices are good interpreter of climate change information, this high-resolution climate change information would advocate future policies of the nation.

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